We evaluate the positives and negatives of Uribe’s seven years a president, to analyze whether this government deserves another four years. There are plenty of both. But we think the benefits of democratic alternation outweigh those of continuity.
As the international economic situation seem
s to untangle, Colombian economic results deliver both good and bad news. Therefore, we analyze possible contingencies and their effect on economic performance in 2009.
Exports fell 15.3% in January-February 2009 compared to the same period last year. Given that Colombia’s main trading partners are the United States, Venezuela and Ecuador, the fall in exports is mainly due to falling external demand and lower oil prices. In the worst case scenario, exports to Venezuela could fall by 10% in 2009, to Ecuador by 25%, and to the US 25%, given an average oil price of $44 per barrel. This would ultimately mean that exports would fall by $10.8 billion this year. Risks to the oil price are on the upside, and therefore we don`t expect more unpleasant surprises in this front.
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