Doubtful Diplomacy

The first question Colombians are asking themselves right now is if they will go to war with Venezuela. The second question is how to avoid it, or at least, how to shut off the alarms ignited by Hugo Chavez in his latest television appearance, where he told the Venezuelan people to prepare for war. For Colombia this is a never before seen situation. In the past 50 years it was unheard of that a neighboring president, like Chavez, invoked a war against Colombia. Diplomacy must now step up. But the questions that remain are: how effective can it truly be? What instance could be most useful?

The sorting of options becomes necessary. For example, contrary to popular belief, the UN would not be the appropriate instance to sort out this conflict. It may help to guarantee a peaceful environment by sending goodwill agents, as it has done in Guyana and Haiti in 1991, or it may also prove useful in the search of more ambitions solutions like the preventive mission to Macedonia in 1999. But the problem is that the Colombian government is seeking a reprimand against Chavez and Chavez, on his end, is working to get one against president Uribe

The diplomatic note that Claudia Bloom, the Colombian ambassador in the UN, presented before the Security Council denounces Chavez and his threats of “using force” against Colombia. Venezuela did not stay put. The next day he warned the same council that the “establishment of seven U.S military bases in Colombia created a dangerous geostrategic reality conducent to the outburst of a continental conflict of great magnitude.” But the war of words will hardly make it to the agenda of the Security Council since any of the five members can veto it and the United States, through their OAS ambassador, made it clear it has no intention of letting it go that far. The US is not interested in having its regional problems exposed and discussed by other powers.

There is already a recent antecedent that illustrates this. The bickering between Colombia and Ecuador after the bombarding of a guerrilla camp in the neighboring country that led to the death of FARC chief Raul Reyes tried to make it to the UN, but once there it was sent to the OAS (Organization of American States).

And the same occurs with other multilateral organisms like the OAS and Unasur. In the case of the OAS, its chief, Jose Miguel Insulza, does not enjoy good esteem and prestige. The delicate politic crisis that ensued after the military coup in Honduras has made him look like a terrible negotiator that made other mediators, like the North American diplomats or Costa Rican president Oscar Arias look stronger.

Besides, both quarreling sides could question its neutrality. On the one side, the OAS carries the stigma of being the “ministry of colonies of the United States” by the extreme left in Latin America. Chavez has attacked it on many occasions and has even made fun of Insulza. On the other, the Honduran crisis has caused many voices to criticize the OAS’s defense of the rule of law in Central America but not in Venezuela, where Chavez has relentlessly pursued his opponents with immunity. The major of Caracas, stripped of his powers, and many student leaders have even gone on hunger strikes in front of the OAS office in Caracas to protest against the organization’s silence. Some even point out that Insulza has pretended to flirt with the votes of Chavez and his allies in the last months prior to his re-election as general secretary next year. Besides, many leaders in the region are interested in that the OAS looses ground against other spaces where Washington is not a factor, and this has diminished its influence.

Unasur, which should be the ideal space to resolve security issues in South America, has already burned its sails. Partly because of the debate regarding the establishment of U.S military bases in Colombia, where Uribe’s government felt pushed against the wall by neighboring governments and party because of the ideological lack of trust that emanates from a multilateral organization whose members, the great majority, are left wing and frown upon the close relationship between Colombia and Uncle Sam.

In this context, a better option could be the mediation offered by Brazil. Lula’s right hand in international affairs, Marco Aurelio García, has repeatedly stated in the past ten days that Brazil is willing to create a commission to guard the frontier and prevent any incident that may escalate to war. He has also affirmed this commission could be “the first step towards a non-aggression pact between the two countries and the normalization of relations.” But Chavez has already shut the door to that proposal and said, once again, that the real problem was the establishment of the military bases in Colombia.

Even though both countries enjoy good relations with Lula, each side has its own reservations. Colombia, for example, may have certain ideological mistrust towards Garcia, who has, on occasion, leaned towards the radical left. Maybe this is why the Colombian Chancellor Jaime Bermudez called his Spanish counterpart, Miguel Angel Moratinos, to see if Spain was interested in joining the mediation.

Yet, more than diplomacy, interests are what will inevitably have more weight when it comes to avoiding a war. Not in vain, just four days after he told his people to prepare for war, Chavez had to lower his bellicose tone. Among many possible reasons, the fact that the Brazilian senate froze the discussion about allowing Venezuela’s entry to Mercosur, is revealing. In statements delivered to La FM radio station, owned by RCN, the president of the International Relations Commission of the Brazilian Senate, Eduardo Azeredo, said the voting was postponed because they have doubts regarding the democratic character of Chavez’s government and besides, Chavez is seen as a disintegrator while “Mercosur is all about integration.”

This is not the first time interests are able to deactivate time bombs. Past tensions between the two neighboring countries have eased because one or the other has had to lower their head. In the case of the capture of guerrilla member ‘Rodrigo Granda’ in 2005, commerce was essential. The Colombian entrepreneurs, with sales for more than 4.000 million dollars, pressured president Uribe, who sought help in Cuban president Fidel Castro, who succeeded in calming elevated spirits.

The question then, is what interests could deactivate Chavez’s paranoid and combative mood. It is worrying to see that almost every contention wall has already been brought down, the most crucial being commerce. The Colombian businessmen decided to defend national interest, even if it meant suffering the consequences from a diminished commercial relationship. Yet., it is not clear whether the Venezuelan government can live without all the basic elements (like meat and milk) that it imports from Colombia without suffering a blow in popularity.

Until now, it is evident that Chavez is interested in constructing a war-like discourse based on the defense of Venezuela against an imaginary “preventive attack” initiated by the United States operating through Colombia. This means that a discourse on a supposed aggression in Colombia is in the making and may cause any incident on the frontier to escalate rapidly

For now, Brazil is trying to set up a meeting with Chavez and Uribe in the upcoming Manaos summit on November 26, but it is not yet confirmed. Surely, this meeting will not be able to deactivate tensions that have been maturing for various years. But it can be the first step for Brazil, who’s leadership and mediation are essential, and other countries like Peru, Mexico and Canada to try and deactivate the time bomb that affects the entire region

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